Buffett on Complexity

“Investors should remember that their scorecard is not computed using Olympic diving methods. Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count. If you are right about a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand and enduring, the payoff is the same as if you had correctly analyzed an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting and complex variables. The truly big investment idea can usually be explained in a short paragraph.”

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