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Monthly Archives: March 2013

Great piece by the WSJ marking the 4 year anniversary of the stock market’s bottoming out on 3/9/09.  I wish the chart below provided some valuation metrics in addition to total return.  Here’s a quick stab at some valuation metrics.

Disclaimer: this post is more about highlighting a good article and cool chart than it is about providing a thorough overview of global valuations… maybe I’ll do that in a subsequent post.  

At around 18x LTM earnings the S&P doesn’t look wildly over valued but it’s not cheap either.  When using the cyclically adjusted (or Shiller) PE the market looks even more expensive (23.45x avg. inflation adjusted earnings from the last 10 years).  European equities on the other hand are quite cheap (unfortunately I don’t have the exact PEs handy).  EM as I understand is a mixed bag – again don’t have the breakdown or PEs handy.

The 10 year UST is overvalued – to what degree depends on your time frame (see chart).

Gold – there is no good way to value gold so whey don’t we skip this one.

Oil – unlike gold this at least has some supply / demand dynamic and is widely used for industrial purposes in our economy.  I don’t know what the marginal cost of production is or how the new unconventional sources of oil (e.g. shale) are impacting prices.  Just remember there is a cartel that helps set prices and has a vested interest in keeping the price in an elevated but palatable range (high enough to fill their pockets but not so high to make people by electric or natgas cars).

Good advice from one of the greats:

“We clear a high bar before making an investment, and we resist the many pressures that other investors surely feel to lower that bar. The prospective return must always be generous relative to the risk incurred. For riskier investments, the upside potential must be many multiples of any potential loss. We believe there is room for a few of these potential five and ten baggers in a diversified, low-risk portfolio. A bargain price is necessary but not sufficient for making an investment, because sometimes securities that seem superficially inexpensive really aren’t. “Value traps” are cheap for a reason–perhaps an inept and entrenched management, a poor history of capital allocation, or assets whose value is in inexorable decline. A catalyst for the realization of underlying value is something we seek, but we will also make investments without a catalyst when the price is sufficiently compelling. It is easy to find middling opportunities but rare to find exceptional ones. We conduct an expansive search for opportunity across industries, asset classes, and geographies, and when we find compelling bargains we drill deep to verify the validity of our assumptions. Only then do we buy. As for what we own, we continually assess and reassess to incorporate new fundamental information about an investment in the context of market price fluctuations. When bargains are lacking, we are comfortable holding cash. This approach has been rewarding–as one would hope with a philosophy that is painstaking, extremely disciplined, and highly opportunistic.”

Found via Value Investing World

Modern Seinfeld

Modern Seinfeld

@SeinfeldToday

The second coming is here, sort of.  This is one of the funniest things I’ve seen in a long time.  If you like Seinfeld check out Modern Seinfeld on Twitter (@SeinfeldToday).  The show could come back on the air today and have plenty of material ready to go… not that they’d need any help.

A few highlights:

  • Elaine swears off Starbucks. Jerry refuses to enable gchat. “Everyone I’ve ever emailed can talk to me whenever? No thank you.”
  • George reveals his system for texting when he’s late: “If I say 10 minutes, I’ll be a half hour. If I say a half hour, you may never see me”
  • Jerry’s gf constantly says “hashtag.” George gets a job as a “social media expert.” “It’s great, Jerry. You don’t need to know anything!”
  • Jerry’s gf (Rachel Nichols) sells locally sourced produce that George refuses to buy. “Why does it cost so much? You grow it RIGHT THERE!”
  • After autocorrect ends a relationship that George couldn’t on his own, he embraces it. “I don’t know what’s best for me, Jerry. It does!”

From the folks at Quartz – these are just the highlights – check out the full article here

The comprehensive, fully caffeinated guide to coffee at work

  • Surprise! Coffee keeps you alert
  • Coffee eases the pain of working at a desk
  • Coffee is a social lubricant 
  • Even without the coffee, coffee shops are good places to work [rather, get work done]
  • The best time for a coffee is around 2 p.m.
  • Coffee can make a stressful situation more stressful
  • The coffee break is a 20th century invention
  • It’s also an invention of Madison Ave, with an assist from a behavioral psychologist
  • Coffee may be a life saver, especially for older workers.
  • It even works with decaf
  • Baristas drink the most coffee

Last night I had a dream that Charlie Munger was giving me putting lessons.  We were on a putting green – I remember trying a little too hard on my first putt and pulling it just to the left of the cup.  I felt embarrassed that I missed my putt in front of Charlie Munger.  I can’t remember Munger’s exact words but they were something about mechanics and focusing on a relaxed stroke – that putt went in and I woke up.

This is what you get for reading Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter right before bed.

My interpretation: Investing and golf are remarkably similar.  Your main focus needs to be on process and mechanics.  Take whatever the market/course throws your way and stay disciplined – apply your process, think about your shots, do not take too many of them, focus on the things you can control (yourself), don’t be overcome by psychology.  You will make bad shots / investments – it’s part of the game, don’t let it ruin your round.  If you’re in a rut clear your mind – stay focused on applying your process to the next shot, the next opportunity.

I could go on but you get the idea.

Interesting map of just a few of the defense cuts on the block.  However, before that a few words of wisdom and warning from former President and Supreme Allied Commander during WWII, Dwight D. Eisenhower.  Not that I think the military industrial complex is being unwound (not by a long shot), it is interesting to hear Eisenhower’s words while catching a small glimpse of the current scale of the complex.